Way off.Īlaska will be Romney with Paul second. Obama will get perhaps 45 percent of the delegates to her 55 percent, ensuring the race continues for quite some time.ĭelegate counts and state listings via NYT Election Guides: Democrats, Republicans.Īctually, you would know by now (1PM EST) that Romney is crushing McCain in West Virginia with Huckleberry coming in second. This seeming Clinton rout will actually be a fairly minor victory. The statewide “winners” don’t really matter all that much, anyway, because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally.
I’m taking wild guesses on a handful of these, as I’m not seeing any publicly available polling. Tennessee Primary (85 delegates): Clintonĭemocrats Abroad Primary (11 delegates): Clinton North Dakota Caucus (21 delegates): Clinton New York Primary (281 delegates): Clinton New Mexico Caucus (38 delegates): Clinton New Jersey Primary (127 delegates): Clinton Massachusetts Primary (121 delegates): Clinton That said, she should have a very good day.Īmerican Samoa Caucus (9 delegates): ClintonĬalifornia Primary (441 delegates): Obama in a squeakerĬonnecticut Primary (60 delegates): Clinton I’m much less confident than I was just a few days ago that she’ll win the nomination. Barack Obama has had an amazing surge, though, including some big time endorsements. She had a huge lead in California and New York, the two biggest prizes. The Media Conspiracy to Keep Ron Paul Down will have proven itself once again, too, as the man finishes the night all but mathematically eliminated.Ī week ago, it looked like Hillary Clinton was set to run the table. I expect he’ll quit the race sooner rather than later once that’s clear. Of this I’m sure: He’ll end the night with no hope of getting the nomination. Mike Huckabee will almost certainly take his home state of Arkansas and it wouldn’t shock me if he picked up another state somewhere in the Deep South or West Virginia I just don’t have the polling data to be confident in every case. I’m predicting McCain will win 60% to 65% of the delegates at stake today. The bottom line is that McCain’s delegates will come easier than Romney’s, increasing the effect of his strong polling numbers nationwide. For example, Romney’s home state of Massachusetts employs a proportional model. One the other hand, with the exception of Utah, states Mitt Romney might be expected to win break down the allocation of delegates to more than one candidate. As a result, he stands to gain large delegate blocks in such states as New York, Arizona, Missouri, and New Jersey. It just so happens that in many states where McCain is ahead, the method is winner-take-all. Indeed, as Scott Elliot notes in his extensive breakdown, Further, it barely matters: California awards its delegates proportionally. Still, I think the Giuliani and Schwarzenegger endorsements will help carry the day for McCain. Mitt Romney could very well take California he’s ahead in some of the polls and trailing by less than the margin of error in the aggregate. West Virginia Caucus (30 delegates): McCain North Dakota Caucus (26 delegates): McCain New Jersey Primary (52 delegates): McCain Massachusetts Primary (43 delegates): Romney Here, though, is my SWAG at the outcomes:Īrkansas Primary (34 delegates): HuckabeeĬalifornia Primary (173 delegates): McCainĬonnecticut Primary (30 delegates): McCain Indeed, I haven’t found any polls at all for a couple. Unlike the early states, we don’t have an abundance of polls in every Super Tuesday state. Mitt Romney has closed the gap in California to make the biggest prize of the day a toss-up. At least mathematically, though, it won’t be over tonight.īarring some major surprises, John McCain will end the night as the prohibitive favorite for the nomination. Today’s voting in two dozen states will go a long way towards deciding the eventual nominees. Hard as it is to believe, the Iowa Caucuses were on January 3rd. While this has indeed been “ long primary season,” given that campaigning started in the fall of 2006 if not earlier, we’re technically only a month into the actual voting. After months of states racing to move their primary up to February 5th, the first day allowed for states not named “Iowa” or “New Hampshire,” Super Tuesday - or Super Duper Tuesday or Super-Duper-Mega-Jumbo Tuesday or whatever nickname one wants to call it - is finally upon us.